The X International Forum

Arctic: today and the future

December 10-12, 2020, SAINT PETERSBURG

Arctic moves to a new state of climate


Arctic moves to a new state of climate

A large-scale study of the Arctic has shown that it heats up quickly so a new climate regime is appearing. The corresponding work was published in the Nature Climate Change journal. The climate of Arctic latitudes has always been subject to fluctuations: in different years there was a different amount of ice, sometimes the snow was replaced by rains.

But the new work of scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) suggests that today the Arctic has heated up so much that its annual variability goes beyond any past temperature fluctuations. According to the scientists, this indicates that the district is transitioning to a qualitatively different climate regime.

Thus even in very cold winters, so much sea ice will never form here again. Autumn and winter temperatures will also be quite high. Therefore, a new climate will finally form in the Arctic by 2050; the scientists predict that from 20 to 60 days a year will be rainy, not snowy as before.

If the level of greenhouse gases does not fall by the end of the century, the rainy season will extend from 60 to 90 days. And most of the sea ice in this region will disappear for a period from three to ten months per year. As it turned out, the Arctic has entered a new phase of climate already in the 1990s. This conclusion of scientists has led to the study of a huge amount of long-term observations of the local climate, as well as computer modeling.

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